Outlook for Oceanic Drivers for the Next SeasonFollowing the transition to ENSO-neutral conditions at the end of the FMA 2026 season, the multi-model ensemble indicates a rapid transition to a strong El Niño event. By JJA 2026, the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) is forecast to comfortably clear the El Niño threshold, reaching approximately 1.8°C for the seasonal average. The intensification trajectory maintains a steep upward slope throughout the boreal summer and autumn. Spread among the individual member models is narrow during JJA, indicating very high forecast confidence.
The Verdict
ClassificationLikely AI
ConfidenceHigh confidence
Analyzedtext
Community Verdict
Sign in to vote
Be the first to vote on this assessment.
Embed Badge
Add this badge to your site to show the AI classification for this content.
[](https://real.press/content/592e035b-f89d-4566-9495-9f8b5d004ba7)