Gulf security model nears breaking point as external guarantees prove increasingly conditional
Likely AI
The Iran war of 2026 has revived long-standing warnings that Gulf monarchies may be entering a period of structural fragility, as reliance on external security guarantees is increasingly exposed as conditional and unreliable. Rather than imminent collapse, the region now faces pressure to either rapidly recalibrate into more autonomous and integrated defence arrangements or risk gradual political reconfiguration under intensifying external shocks.
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